The altcoin market is one of the most inefficient markets out there, so there are many profit opportunities that you can take advantage of, but this also requires a large amount of time and effort to research and spot such opportunities. To keep things simple when learning technical analysis, you should start by looking at 2 things only, price action candlesticks or others , and volume. And of course, context is always important, e.
I will discuss these technical analysis frameworks and tools in this and the following chapters. Instead of simply memorizing things like candlestick and chart patterns and using indicators blindly, try to first understand the underlying dynamics behind price movement, and what affects price action in the first place. The key to understanding this is to consider the market from the point of view that price is driven by market participants and nothing else.
Along these lines, I recommend reading Price Action Breakdown by Laurentiu Damir as an introduction to not only price action and support and resistance, but more importantly for his insight into what actually creates these market structures and how supply, demand and human behaviour drives prices. You can find all his resources here. An uptrend is characterized by higher highs and higher lows, while a downtrend is characterized by lower highs and lower lows.
Simple enough. A candlestick chart also called Japanese candlestick chart is a simple representation of price vs time, and is the most commonly used candle type. One candle represents one time-period for the chosen timeframe, e. Candlestick charts show the same information as bar charts, and choosing between them is only a matter of preference if you prefer to see the thickness of the real bodies, or the clean look of bar charts.
Heiken Ashi HA charts differ from candlestick or bar charts, in that HA charts the average price moves, creating a smoother appearance. Because HA charts take into account the open, high, low, and close of previous candles, they can be used to spot market trends and predict future prices.
There is a tendency with HA for the candles to stay red during a downtrend and green during an uptrend, whereas normal candlesticks alternate color even if the price is moving dominantly in one direction. Hence HA charts provide more clear highlighting and confirmation of current trends.
Price charts always come with price on the Y-axis, and time on the X-axis. Each candle represents the time interval that is chosen, which can range from 1-minute to 4-hours to 1-day to 1-week or even longer intervals. The lower the time interval chosen, the higher the resolution of price. However, in creating an effective trading strategy, it is common practice and highly recommended to use multiple timeframes in your analysis, which we will discuss in a later chapter.
Support is a price level where a downtrend can be expected to pause due to a concentration of demand. Resistance zones arise due to a sell-off when prices increase. Note that they are not just at a single price point, but generally cover a zone or area. Once an area or zone of support or resistance has been identified, it provides valuable potential trade entry or exit points.
This is because, as a price reaches a point of support or resistance, it will do one of two things — bounce back away from the support or resistance level, or violate the price level and continue in its direction — until it hits the next support or resistance level.
Notice how old major support and resistance areas will still be relevant when price reaches those levels again after some time. Also, when a resistance support level gets broken through, it will often act as a new support resistance. As a general rule of thumb, support and resistance zones become more significant if the levels have been tested regularly over an extended period of time.
However, it is also more likely to break if tested multiple times. Volume is another important aspect of a chart and price action. It represents market interest in a particular stock, and higher volume relative to other trading periods usually represents higher volatility. Volume and breakouts also come hand in hand, so it is crucial you understand both concepts. Trendlines are easily recognizable lines that traders draw on charts to connect a series of prices highs or lows together. Understanding the direction of an underlying trend is one of the most basic ways to increase the probability of making a successful trade because it ensures that the general market forces are working in your favor.
Downward sloping trendlines suggest that there is an excess amount of supply for the coin, a sign that market participants have a higher willingness to sell an asset than to buy it. Conversely, an uptrend is a signal that the demand for the asset is greater than the supply, and is used to suggest that the price is likely to continue heading upward.
When a downward upward sloping trendline is present, you should refrain from holding a long short position; a gain drop on a move higher lower is unlikely, when the overall longer-term trend is heading downward upward.
Read more about how to trade trendlines here. Candlestick patterns can give you an indication of how buyers and sellers behaved during the period of the candle. Candlestick patterns are generally more reliable when used on higher timeframes, such as on 1-day candles. Also, candlesticks by themselves do not provide a price target. Instead, traders will need to use other methods, such as indicators or trend analysis, for selecting a price target or determining when to get out of a profitable trade or cut your losses.
There are too many different candlestick patterns to list here, so we will only highlight a few important ones and ones that have a relatively high success rate. A candle with a spinning top and doji by itself is neutral. It shows indecision between the bulls and bears and it is telling you that the market can go either way. They should be interpreted in relation to the candles preceding and immediately after it, for example in the morning star and evening star pattern, which will be discussed later.
After a strong price advance or decline, spinning tops and dojis can signal a potential price reversal, if the candle that follows confirms. Whenever you see a hammer it shows that there is enormous buying power coming in at this level.
As the session started it was a complete bear market, price easily made a new low, suddenly bulls stepped in and started to buy, pushing price all the way up. Thereby it is a strong reversal signal. The same goes for a shooting star candle, only this time in an uptrend. It was a bull market, price made a new high, bears started to sell and pushed the price lower. By definition, the hammer has a higher close than open price, while a shooting star has a lower close than open price.
An inverted hammer is essentially the same as a shooting star, except that it appears in a downtrend. Similarly, a hanging man candle has the same structure as a hammer, except that it appears in an uptrend. For example, in a downtrend, an inverted hammer can also be interpreted as showing that buyers tried to step in, but were quickly pushed back down by the sellers back to near the open price.
The bullish engulfing pattern is a two-candle reversal pattern. It indicates that buyers have overtaken the sellers and are pushing the price up more aggressively than the sellers were able to push it down, indicating that buyers have gained control and that there could be a strong up move after a recent downtrend or a period of consolidation..
Engulfing patterns are most useful following a clear trending market as the pattern clearly shows the shift in momentum to the opposite side. Since engulfing patterns are typically high-volume events, finding confluence with volume and other indicators can often lead to favorable trade entries. Tweezer patterns are reversal patterns and occur when two or more candlesticks touch the same bottom top for a tweezer bottom top pattern.
Tweezer bottoms tops are considered to be short-term bullish bearish reversal patterns. You can recognize a tweezer bottom when the first candle shows rejection of lower prices, while the second candle re-tests the low of the previous candle and closes higher. This indicates that sellers pushed price lower and were met with some buying pressure, and on the second candle, the sellers again tried to push price lower but failed, and was finally overwhelmed by strong buying pressure.
This can be interpreted as the market having difficulty trading lower after two attempts and is likely to head higher. It is a breakout pattern, but it can be both a continuation or reversal. It is generally more reliable in trending markets and you should avoid using this signal in choppy sideways markets.
You can also have multiple inside bars, which is more reliable than just 2 candlesticks as it shows a longer period of consolidation. When you see multiple inside bars together, it is a strong sign that the market is about to make a big move soon. An inside bar with directional bias is called a Harami Pattern.
An inside bar pattern followed by a false breakout is called the Hikkake Pattern. The star is the first indication of weakness as it indicates that the buyers were unable to push the price up to close much higher than the close of the previous period. This weakness is confirmed by the candlestick that follows the star. This candlestick must be a bearish candlestick that closes well into the body of the first candlestick.
The reliability of the evening star is enhanced by the extent to which the body of the third candlestick penetrates the body of the first candlestick, and if the third candlestick has very little or no lower wick. In addition, volume should also be considered as the pattern is more reliable if the volume on the first candlestick is lower and the volume on the third candlestick is higher.
The three white soldiers pattern is formed when three long bullish candles follow a downtrend, signaling a reversal has occurred. Also, the second candlestick should close near its high, leaving a small or non-existent upper wick. To complete the pattern, the last candlestick should be at least the same size as the second candle and have a small or no wick. The three white soldiers candlestick pattern suggests a strong change in market sentiment. When a candle is closing with small or no wicks, it suggests that the bulls have managed to keep the price at the top of the range for the period.
Basically, the bulls take over the rally throughout the period and close near the high of the period for three consecutive periods. In addition, the pattern may be preceded by other candlestick patterns suggestive of a reversal, such as a doji. This is a confirmed Harami pattern. The first two candlesticks are exactly the same as the Harami, and the third candle is a break and close outside of the inside bar pattern and represents confirmation.
A three line strike pattern is similar to an engulfing pattern, except that the last candle engulfs not just 1 but all 3 preceding candles. The strike candle is bullish and opens at or lower than the third candle but closes at least above the open of the first candle. A bearish three-line strike pattern preceded by a bullish candlestick is called a Rising Three Methods pattern , which is a bullish continuation pattern.
Chart patterns are the bread and butter of any technical trader, and you should train your eyes and mind to spot these patterns, understand what they mean, and know how to act accordingly. Instead of thinking about patterns as a way of determining whether price goes up or down, think of chart patterns as regions of consolidation, whereby breaking outside of the pattern can lead to a sustained breakout with volume.
Always let price action tell you what to do, rather than predict where the price is going ahead of time. If your position goes underwater, make sure to follow your trading rules and cut your losses when they go beyond your threshold, as laid out by the parameters of your trading rules and strategy. Note that there is no certainty that chart patterns will always play out, but merely represent a relatively high probability of success.
As with candlestick patterns, chart patterns should be used in confluence with other methods, such as indicators or trend analysis, for better results. There are too many chart patterns to list them all here, so we will just be picking some that have a relatively high success rate. We will discuss continuation patterns and reversal patterns, and briefly introduce harmonic chart patterns. The ascending triangle is a trend continuation pattern, where you see higher lows into resistance.
When you see the market making higher lows into resistance, it tells you that sellers are getting exhausted and the buyers are in control. A symmetrical triangle also called a pennant is also a continuation pattern, though it has a lower probability of success, and oftentimes evolves into a different pattern such as a channel or rectangle.
This is because the market making both lower highs as well as higher lows indicates a sign of indecision, and that neither buyers or sellers were able to take control. The bull flag pattern is a continuation pattern formed in an uptrend, representing a period of consolidation after a strong momentum markup. As the name implies, there are two parts to the pattern: the cup which is formed after an advance and looks like a rounding bottom, and the handle which is formed when a tight trading range develops near the peak of the cup.
The smaller the retracement in the handle, the more bullish the breakout is likely to be. It is characterized by the highest volume on the left shoulder followed by the head, and finally with rising volume on the breakout. The two shoulders do not always have to be at the same price, but the closer they are to the same area the stronger the pattern generally becomes. Note that the neckline can also be a sloping trendline.
The point of entry is typically at the break of the neckline after the right shoulder, with a target of the same distance as from the peak of the head to the neckline. The double triple top pattern is defined by two three nearly equal highs with some space between the touches. Generally, the wider the gap between touches the more powerful the pattern becomes. The pattern is complete when price breaks below the swing low point created after the first high in a double triple top, and is considered a success when price covers the same distance following the breakout as the distance from the double triple high to the recent swing low point.
The market bounces and develops a more gentle correction, printing a second bottom Eve on lower volatility which is more rounded and wider. The diamond pattern is a trend reversal pattern. Price action starts out as a broadening pattern, where the peaks are higher and the troughs are lower.
It then changes to where the peaks are lower and troughs are higher. Connecting the peaks and troughs will form a diamond. An important feature of a diamond top bottom pattern is that the volume corresponds with the size of the trading range, increasing as the price rises declines and the range peaking near the high low price point. The downward upward trend that follows this is an indication of reduced enthusiasm amongst traders about the market. This narrowing range in the second half of a diamond pattern can be represented by a descending resistance level and ascending support, which is a critical breakout point.
Traders should look out for this line to be crossed before accepting that the trend is going to change. It is caused by big traders looking for large liquidity to fill their orders by hunting stop-losses and baiting breakout traders. Harmonic price patterns are those that take geometric price patterns to the next level by utilizing Fibonacci numbers to define precise turning points.
At the root of the methodology is the golden ratio, or some derivative of it 0. The golden ratio is found in almost all natural and environmental structures and events; it is also found in man-made structures. Since the pattern repeats throughout nature and within society, the ratio is also seen in the financial markets, which are affected by the environments and societies in which they trade.
Harmonic patterns are much more advanced than simple candlestick or chart patterns above, and we will not go through them in detail here. For more information, read about harmonic patterns on Investopedia and Babypips. We will not go through how each of these indicators are calculated and what they do, as there are plenty of resources you can find online and in books about them. Have added hyperlinks to Investopedia for each of them for your easy reference.
Instead, we will discuss how to use some of these indicators at the end of this post, in the trading setups section. Fibonacci ratios are common in everyday life, seen in galaxy formations, architecture, as well as how some plants grow. Therefore, some traders believe these common ratios may also have significance in the financial markets, since prices are driven by market participants.
The fibonacci retracement tool can be used to establish profit targets or estimate how far a price may retrace to. They are drawn from a range low to high, and mark out price levels of possible importance at the While fibonacci retracements are useful for determining levels within a range and are typically used to make a case for entering a trade, extensions are useful in determining price targets when price breaks out of the range and typically used in determining where to take profits.
Retracement and extension levels signal possible areas of importance, but should not be relied on exclusively. They are much more reliable when found to be in confluence with other levels such as strong resistance and support levels.
Basic understanding of Fibonacci Retracement and how to plot against Bitcoin :. Divergences occur when price and momentum indicators such as RSI do not agree with each other in trending markets. An example of this is when prices make a higher high in an uptrend but the momentum indicator does not, which we term a regular bearish divergence.
Divergences happen because prices continue to move in the direction in the trend, but its momentum is slowing down, i. Hence, when a divergence is spotted, there is a higher probability of a price retracement. Price breaking and closing below an upward fork provides a sell signal in an uptrend, and breaking and closing above a downward fork provides a buy signal in a downtrend.
The C-fork is a highly effective pattern despite its simple appearance, often giving a relatively early signal for entry. Wyckoff focuses exclusively on price action. Earnings and other fundamental information were simply too esoteric and imprecise to be used effectively. Moreover, this information was usually already factored into the price by the time it became available to the average speculator.
Before looking at the details, there are two rules to keep in mind. Hutson, David H. Weiss and Craig F. The market is an artist, not a computer. It has a repertoire of basic behavior patterns that it subtly modifies, combines and springs unexpectedly on its audience. A trading market is an entity with a mind of its own.
There are no predetermined, never-fail levels where the market always changes. Everything the market does today must be compared to what it did before. Instead of steadfast rules, Wyckoff advocated broad guidelines when analyzing the stock market. Nothing in the stock market is definitive. After all, stock prices are driven by human emotions. We cannot expect the exact same patterns to repeat over time. There will, however, be similar patterns or behaviors that astute chartists can profit from.
Chartists should keep the following guidelines in mind and then apply their own judgments to develop a trading strategy. According to Wyckoff, the market can be understood and anticipated through detailed analysis of supply and demand, which can be ascertained from studying price action, volume and time. As a broker, he was in a position to observe the activities of highly successful individuals and groups who dominated specific issues, and was able to decipher, through the use of what he called vertical bar and figure point-and-figure charts, the future intentions of those large interests.
The time to enter long orders is towards the end of the preparation for a price markup or bull market accumulation of large lines of stock , while the time to initiate short positions is at the end of the preparation for price markdown. Before making a trading or investment decision, chartists need to know where the market is within its trend. Overbought markets are at risk of a pullback and positions taken with overbought conditions risk a significant drawdown.
Similarly, the chances of a bounce are high when the market is oversold, even if the bigger trend is down. Selling short when market conditions are oversold can also result in a significant drawdown and adversely affect the risk-reward ratio. Wyckoff notes that an uptrend starts with an accumulation phase and then enters a markup phase as prices move steadily higher. There are five possible buy points during the entire uptrend.
First, aggressive players can buy on the spring or selling climax. This area offers the highest reward potential, but the risk of failure is above average because the downtrend has not yet reversed. The second buy point comes with the breakout above resistance, provided it is confirmed by expanding volume.
Chartists missing the breakout buy point are sometimes given a second chance with a throwback to broken resistance, which turns into support. Once the markup stage is fully under way, chartists must then rely on corrections, which can form as consolidations or pullbacks. Wyckoff referred to a flat consolidation within an uptrend as a re-accumulation phase. A break above consolidation resistance signals a continuation of the markup phase.
In contrast to a consolidation, a pullback is a corrective decline that retraces a portion of the prior move. Chartists should look for support levels using trend lines, prior resistance breaks or prior consolidations. This was mapped out to a T by caprioleio :.
A downtrend starts with a distribution phase and then enters a markdown phase as prices move steadily lower. Note that Wyckoff did not shy away from shorting the market. He looked for opportunities to make money on the way up and on the way down. As with the accumulation and markup phase, there are five potential selling points during this extended downtrend. First, a lower peak within a distribution pattern offers a chance to short the market before the actual support break and trend change.
Such aggressive tactics offer the highest reward potential, but also risk failure because the downtrend has not officially started. The breakdown point is the second level to short the market, provided the support break is validated with expanding volume. After a breakdown and oversold conditions, there is sometimes a throwback to broken support, which turns into resistance.
This offers players a second chance to partake in the support break. Once the markdown phase begins in earnest, chartist should wait for flat consolidations or oversold bounces. Wyckoff referred to flat consolidations as re-distribution periods. A break below consolidation support signals a continuation of the markdown phase.
In contrast to a consolidation, an oversold bounce is a corrective advance that retraces a portion of the prior decline. Chartists can look for resistance areas using trend lines, prior support levels or prior consolidations. The Wyckoff Market Cycle is a very powerful and practical tool that you can use to improve your macro-level understanding of markets and price action.
The first thing to know about your trading environment is determining what the macro trend is. Are we in an overall bull or bear market? For example, late and early was a hotbed for altcoin pumps, as Bitcoin was leading the charge in the bull market then. Thereafter, BTC went into a 1. And the same thing happened in to , followed by the bear market in In this light, take note of how major media outlets portray a particular cryptocurrency, and consider how it will affect the market, so that you can analyze on a broad scale how healthy a market is.
An important consideration for cryptocurrency trading is to understand how environmental conditions affect a market. As discussed in the technical analysis introduction chapter, perspective is everything, and I highlighted the importance of concepts such as market structure, crash cycles, market psychology, fractals, and the environmental conditions, as a framework for analysing charts and price action.
Indicators alone are not enough, and it is crucial to understand the macro trend and environment, and this can be understood better by learning about crash cycles and market structure. Firstly, learn about the anatomy of a Market Cycle and the Crash Cycle, so that we can identify a pump before it happens, and know when the party has ended, and potentially profit from it. The second important concept is Market Structure, and being able to identify the price action and patterns that are unique to each of the various phases of trading, including accumulation, distribution, markup, markdown, breakout, consolidation, retracements, corrections, etc.
The third important concept to understand is the driving force behind price movements. Whales play a big part in any trading ecosystem, and are also present in the Bitcoin market and even in Altcoin markets. They contribute to a large portion of the trading activity, decide how high or low prices go, and also decide when the market will move and in what direction.
Armed with the knowledge of how whales conduct themselves in the market, and the technical analysis framework they use to manipulate the markets, you can profit by identifying smart money and analyzing their intentions. In fact, you should never try to predict it baselessly, but rather you should let the price action tell you the answer. The key here, is to look out for high volume price action. If the dip between euphoria and complacency stages has a bigger volume bar, than compared to the euphoria top volume bar, then it might be wise to start looking for an exit.
Of course this is just a general guideline that only considers one aspect of a trend reversal, when in reality many more factors contribute to it. That said, this is still one of the key ways to determine that a bullish market has exhausted. Why do you think that is? Every trader has their own strategy and trading rules, resulting in very different analyses of the same chart.
Charts are simply a representation of human behaviour, and price is the perceived value of a stock by the market participants. Always take this at face value and put all your perceptions and emotions aside, so that you can plan and execute your trades objectively, instead of allowing emotions and the comments of other people to affect your trade. Trading is a zero-sum game, that is, for one to win, someone else has to lose.
Why is Mass Market Psychology and all of this relevant? Read more about the Pareto Principle and how it applies to trading here. These predictable moves in the market are mostly created by human emotion. Fear is stronger than greed. People get greedier and greedier as the price moves up, but are quick to panic at any sign of danger. Because of this, markets tend to give back their gains in a fraction of the time it took for the bull market to play out.
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