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MLB - Consensus League. There is currently no consensus data available for MLB. Should you Bet With or Against the Public? Upcoming Events MLB. All rights reserved. Baseball is one of the best sports for betting against the public. By focusing on the most heavily bet and most lopsided games of the day, contrarian bettors can take advantage of public bias, pounce on artificially inflated numbers and place themselves on the side of the house.
Remember, the house always wins. Simply put, it pays to go contrarian in the most lopsided games of the day. You also want to be on the sharp side of every game with the professional bettors who have a long track record of success and win at a high rate. When a bad team wins a game, conventional wisdom says you should bet against them or fade them the next game.
Since , teams with a win percentage of. Interleague Play first began in and was expanded in Now teams play 20 interleague games per season. These unique matchups provide an increased edge for savvy bettors. Because of the rules, style of play and roster construction the American League plays with a designated hitter, while the National League lets the pitcher hit , American League teams have had a distinct advantage in Interleague Play.
This is the total amount of runs scored by both teams combined. One of the most important factors to consider when betting MLB totals is the wind. It can have a massive impact on the outcome of the game. If the wind is blowing in, it greatly benefits unders.
Because first row home runs turn into warning track outs. Since , when the wind is blowing in at 5 MPH or more, the under has won The best park for betting windy unders is Wrigley Field. According to our Bet Labs database , windy unders at Wrigley in day games with totals of 8 or higher have won If the wind is blowing out at 8 MPH or more, the over has won When betting totals, recreational bettors always gravitate toward overs. No one wants to see a boring snooze fest filled with strikeouts, double-plays and innings.
Except, of course, the sharps. In a vacuum, unders have more value than overs because oddsmakers know the public will bet overs regardless, so they can shade lines toward the over, providing additional value for savvy wiseguys. Even better, unders have steadily risen over the past four years thanks to sabermetrics the shift is so advanced it takes away hits , plus pitchers are striking everyone out and offense is down across the board.
Over the past four years, the Under cash rate has steadily increased from One of the best wiseguy edges is taking Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams. Games played in a dome or closed roof stadium have gone under One variable that often gets overlooked by public bettors is the home plate umpire. While you should never bet a game solely because of an umpire, it should always be taken into account because, after all, umpires are human and can have pronounced tendencies.
Some umps have tight strike zones, which lead to more walks, runs scored and benefit overs. You can still take advantage of Sunday Night Baseball. This makes it a fantastic spot to go contrarian and bet against the public — especially if it also has sharp action. Many casual bettors only bet through one sportsbook.
This is a mistake because it forces you to play whatever number your book is offering. Instead, take some time to set up accounts at multiple sportsbooks so you can shop for the best line. For example, maybe you want to bet the Arizona Diamondbacks. By having access to multiple books you just padded your potential payout by five cents.
It might not seem like a big deal, but over the course of a long season it can make a world of difference. Bankroll management is key across all sports, but especially baseball. Because the season is so long, it can be very volatile with a wave of ups and downs along the way. As a result, you want to stick to flat betting. Also avoid betting parlays. In the old days, in order to track your bets you had to keep a notebook or a spreadsheet.
Luckily, times have changed. Now you can easily track all of your plays with a simple tap of the finger using The Action Network App. Why is tracking your plays so important? Sure, we all want to monitor our performance.